Back in 2008, 11-time championship head coach Phil Jackson dropped a simple, yet powerful piece of wisdom:
“You must win 40 games before you lose 20 to be seen as an elite team,” Jackson said.
On its own, this was not a groundbreaking idea. A record of 40-19 equates to a winning percentage of 67.8%, a completely reasonable expectation for great teams to reach.
History has been kind to Jackson though, with his assessment evolving into one of the most cited, and accurate determining factors for the eventual NBA champion.
Since the 1983-84 season, 90% of NBA champions have fulfilled the 40-20 rule. This includes last year’s Celtics, who only lost only 21 total games between the regular season and playoffs.
After a substantially large win over the Philadelphia 76ers, Boston moves to 40-16, drawing an approving head nod from Phil. This comes just a few weeks after falling to 32-15, highlighting an impressive lock-in period before the All-Star break.
The Celtics join the Cavaliers and Thunder as teams that have punched their ticket to contender status. Memphis and Denver are hanging on by a thread with 19 losses, and the Knicks have some work to do at 36-18.
In most cases, these teams have the benefit of home court advantage, making it an uphill battle for any overachieving squad to come close to finishing the deal. The ‘23 Miami Heat miraculously went from the Play-In to The Finals, but playing 18 games just to reach the Nuggets took its toll. So much would have to go right for a team to close the talent gap.
This of course does not guarantee a Finals appearance for Boston, but it’s another sign that they’re going to be right there in the mix. While just 27% of all playoff teams have hit the 40-20 mark, 76% of NBA Finalists have been a member of the club. You don’t need it to make the postseason, but it’s an indicator of who’s more likely to make a deep playoff run.
The four champions that did not meet the requirement were the ‘21 Bucks, ‘06 Heat, ‘04 Pistons and ‘95 Rockets. Houston traded for Clyde Drexler mid-season, and the same for Detroit with Rasheed Wallace. Miami started off 30-20, before rattling off 10 straight wins to hit 40-20. Milwaukee played a COVID-riddled 72-game season. These four are anomalies, but none were very far off either.
Only time will tell, but the Celtics have legitimized themselves once again by complying with the basketball gods’ favorite statistic.
