Even as the NBA continues to supersize and run through taller players, elite guards will always carry value. The proliferation of taller initiators has opened pathways for guards who aren’t on-ball specialists to thrive in the pros. The 2025 Draft class features one of the deeper crops of guard prospects in quite some time.
The class features nearly every flavor a team could hope for, from superstar initiator bets to combo guards to off-ball shooting specialists. Let’s discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the guards who are first-round worthy prospects.
It’s important to remember that these categories aren’t ranked in terms of value. Primary initiator prospects tend to carry the most value, but we can locate stars in plenty of different roles and archetypes.
Lead Initiator Guards: Dylan Harper, Jeremiah Fears, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Tahaad Pettiford
These prospects all project to command the ball for much of their time on the court. Harper represents the strongest example of this — he’s an elite driving threat, capable of pressuring the rim constantly. Lead initiators must force defenses into rotation consistently by some method. For Harper, that’s incessant paint pressure. He boasts the playmaking vision and off-dribble shooting potential to develop into a star primary at the NBA level.
Fears and Traore represent similar bets on powerful downhill advantage creators who win with speed and horizontal explosion. Fears’ touch and scoring consistency paint a clearer picture of him as an on-ball guard as compared to Traore, who has struggled to score consistently this season.
Saraf and Pettiford both play at their best with the ball in their hands, even if their paths to NBA primary value are murkier. Saraf wins with an often dizzying pace and handling creation with the passing vision to locate shots all over the floor. His athleticism, especially portending to finishing and rim pressure, will be the major swing skills.
Pettiford is a fantastic ballhandler, shotmaker and passer, but will face an uphill battle as a 6’1 point. All of these players will play their best with the ball in their hands, whether as a 30-plus usage primary like Harper or a change-of-pace initiator like Pettiford.
tahaad pettiford vs duke — deep movement/otd threes, wins on drives with great speed and change of pace and ambidextrous finishing/passing. extremely high skill level
14.8 3pa/100, 3% steal rate, 2.4 a:to on the season thus far pic.twitter.com/N2wN2d6yA6
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 6, 2024
Combo Guards: Kasparas Jakucionis, Labaron Philon, Boogie Fland, Kam Jones
This group of guard prospects can harbor on-ball usage but project as hybrids due to certain strengths or weaknesses. “Combo guard” in this case is not a pejorative, as players who can toggle on and off the ball are highly valuable in the modern NBA.
Jakucionis and Philon, for example, both have limitations relating to warping defenses and forcing rotations. Jakucionis can struggle to pressure the paint and Philon isn’t a potent enough shooter to force hard closeouts. But both add tons of value off of the ball as shooters in Jakucionis’s case and drivers in Philon’s with strong pick-and-roll passing.
enjoy some more labaron philon passing goodness pic.twitter.com/FTWhFltmYM
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 22, 2024
Fland reminds of a player like Darius Garland at his highest outcome. He’s a smaller guard without the physical tools to score consistently at the rim or the elite passing to run an offense. Fland could thrive next to another lead initiator, though, where his stellar shot creation and secondary passing can shine.
Similar to Fland, Jones’s main weaknesses (through a primary lens) include his paint offense and passing. But he’s playing like one of college basketball’s best players and could likely contribute today on an NBA team. His elite shooting, handling creation and decision-making should let Jones slide on and off ball as his future team needs.
Off Ball Guards: VJ Edgecombe, Jase Richardson, John Mobley Jr.
The prospects in this bucket probably shouldn’t take on much on-ball creation but should add significant value in other ways. For a player like Edgecombe, that could come from his defense, transition game and off-ball driving. His ballhandling limitations cloud his on-ball projection, but he should dominate as a closeout attacker assuming his jumper progresses.
Richardson has already proven himself a potent off-ball player. Despite his extremely low usage rate (15.7%), Richardson’s special decision-making, great shooting and closeout attacking will help him thrive playing next to elite initiators. Mobley Jr. won’t sport the athletic juice to bend defenses but could be a truly special off-ball shotmaker.
jase richardson has turned the ball over four times in nine games so far, his 7.6% turnover rate is historically low (but will probably normalize some)
pretty nutty decision maker for his age, constantly making smart choices with the ball and he’s confident enough shooting pic.twitter.com/SXAzVB6HX2
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 10, 2024
