Game on the line with a wide-open 3 to win it, which Celtics player is most likely to deliver?

Over the past few seasons, the Celtics have made it abundantly clear that they have one of the best 3-point shooting cores in NBA history.

This year, while it’s still quite early, they’ve made a convincing opening argument that they can take both their volume and efficiency even further.

The beauty of Boston’s roster is that nearly everyone is a threat from distance at any moment. Keying in on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown makes sense conceptually, but in reality, it just leads to Derrick White and Jrue Holiday 3’s. Rotate to them, and Al Horford, Sam Hauser or Payton Pritchard is wide open.

Even Xavier Tillman Sr.’s shot looks better. Oh, and Kristaps Porzingis is still sidelined. That dude’s a sniper.

With all that in mind, here’s an exercise, just for the fun of it: With the game on the line, and a wide-open 3-pointer to win it, which Celtics player do you trust the most to hit the shot?

Tatum made his case Wednesday, drilling a clutch 3-pointer to send the game to overtime. Brown, not so much, as his attempt to tie it late in OT fell way short. White helped will the Celtics back in the fourth quarter with a series of timely shots.

For the sake of leveling the playing field, let’s assume that everyone has played an equal number of minutes and shot an equal percentage to that point in the game. Let’s also assume that they catch the ball in rhythm, with no dribbles, and are each at their favorite spot.

On most teams, the answer would be obvious. On the Celtics, it’s far from a guarantee.

Let’s break the options down in alphabetical order:

Jaylen Brown

Last season: 2.1 makes per game, 35.4 percent, 29.7 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 1.9 makes per game, 36.4 percent, 33.9 percent in fourth quarter

Brown isn’t the most traditional shooter on the list, but he’s certainly upped his credibility by winning Finals MVP. He also hit a massive shot against the Pacers in a situation like this one, and that shouldn’t be taken for granted.

Does his ability to rise to the moment supersede a couple percentage points in his peers’ favor?

Sam Hauser

Last season: 2.5 makes per game, 42.4 percent, 41.4 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 1.9 makes per game, 42.1 percent, 39.7 percent in fourth quarter

When you think pure shooter, Hauser is right up there at the top with Pritchard. His shot looks like it’s going in every time, and it often does.

But Hauser is a bit streaky, and his shot is a smidgen less predictable than some others here. He can catch fire with three or four in a row, but he can also miss three or four in a row. Does he have the composure and clutch component?

Jrue Holiday

Last season: 2 makes per game, 42.9 percent, 51.1 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 1.5 makes per game, 37.2 percent, 36.4 percent in fourth quarter

Holiday is the only guy on the list with two rings to his name. Even when he blends into a game, he has a knack for hitting clutch shots when the Celtics need them most.

He may not be the purest traditional shooter on the list, but he’s improved his shot dramatically since coming to Boston and is unafraid of the moment. It wasn’t your imagination; he did hit more than half of his 3’s in the fourth last year. Pretty wild.

Al Horford

Last season: 1.7 makes per game, 41.9 percent, 38.6 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 0.8 makes per game, 38.1 percent, 37.9 percent in fourth quarter

Horford is money from the corner, so let’s assume this is a corner 3. He gets the pass from Holiday and has time to let it fly. He’d probably hit it, right? Horford may technically be a big, but his stroke is as rhythmic as anyone’s on the roster.

Like Holiday, he wasn’t always an elite marksman, and he’s worked hard to develop his game in that area. He’s someone you can trust in every area, including this one.

Kristaps Porzingis

Last season: 1.9 makes per game, 37.5 percent, 33.3 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 1.8 makes per game, 36.1 percent, 33 percent in fourth quarter

Can’t forget about Porzingis. It’s honestly incredible that a guy who’s 7 feet, 2 inches, is even on this list, but he deserves it. When Porzingis is feeling it, he’s awfully tough to stop.

His shot is almost robotic, and the line drive nature feels conducive to a buzzer-beater setting. There’s not much variability to it. It’s going to be on target, and it’s probably going to fall. His numbers in the clutch are a bit of a concern, statistically speaking.

Payton Pritchard

Last season: 1.8 makes per game, 38.5 percent, 35.8 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 1.6 makes per game, 39.8 percent, 37.8 percent in fourth quarter

Pritchard just has the it factor. If you watch a lot of basketball, you know it when you see it. The man is a hooper to his core. He lives for moments like this one (whether it’s in Game 7 of the NBA Finals or at the park with a stranger).

If there were a separate list for most likely to hit a half-court shot, he’d top it with ease. Does he deserve the No. 1 ranking as a reliable reserve on a star-studded roster?

Jayson Tatum

Last season: 3.1 makes per game, 37.6 percent, 31 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 2.5 makes per game, 37.6 percent, 38.8 percent in fourth quarter

It’s interesting that, despite all the criticism he got for his shot, Tatum ended up shooting exactly his career average last year.

This season, he looks like a new man from a 3-point shooting perspective. He’s at 41.8 percent and is shooting it with fluidity and no fear whatsoever. Do you want your best player taking the shot, even though he’s missed in some critical spots over the years? He has gotten better in that area as his career has progressed. Do you live with the results no matter what happens? He’s your guy. He’s Jayson Tatum.

Derrick White

Last season: 2.7 makes per game, 39.6 percent, 45.7 percent in fourth quarter

Career: 1.6 per game, 36.4 percent, 36.3 percent in fourth quarter

White has a buzzer-beater to his name, though that one was on a layup. He just generally gives off excellent vibes, and you kind of feel like he’d make it because he’s Derrick White.

Somewhere, deep down, there’s still that kid who wasn’t “supposed” to be here. Does that chip on his shoulder ultimately help or hurt when everything’s on the line?

Breaking it down

OK, so this is fun and all, but how’s this guy going to actually determine this? Obviously it’s opinion-based, but I’m going to try to give it at least somewhat of a mathematical component as well.

I’m going to combine the career numbers above with last season’s numbers to form an average, with the goal of avoiding recency bias while also realizing that the most recent data is generally the most accurate.

So, for Tatum, 3.1 makes last year and 2.5 makes on his career equals 2.8, etc. Here’s how they rank with this formula:

Volume:

Jayson Tatum: 2.8 – 8 points

Sam Hauser: 2.2 – 7 points

Derrick White: 2.2 – 6 points

Jaylen Brown: 2 – 5 points

Kristaps Porzingis: 1.9 – 4 points

Jrue Holiday: 1.8 – 3 points

Payton Pritchard: 1.7 – 2 points

Al Horford: 1.3 – 1 point

Efficiency:

Sam Hauser: 42.3 – 8 points

Jrue Holiday: 40 – 7 points

Al Horford: 40 – 6 points

Payton Pritchard: 39.2 – 5 points

Derrick White: 38 – 4 points

Jayson Tatum: 37.6 – 3 points

Kristaps Porzingis: 36.8 – 2 points

Jaylen Brown: 35.9 – 1 point

Clutch:

Jrue Holiday: 43.8 – 8 points

Derrick White: 41 – 7 points

Sam Hauser: 40.6 – 6 points

Al Horford: 38.3 – 5 points

Payton Pritchard: 36.8 – 4 points

Jayson Tatum: 34.9 – 3 points

Kristaps Porzingis: 33.2 – 2 points

Jaylen Brown: 31.8 – 1 points

Results:

Sam Hauser: 21 points

Jrue Holiday: 18 points

Derrick White: 17 points

Jayson Tatum: 14 points

Al Horford: 12 points

Payton Pritchard: 11 points

Jaylen Brown: 7 points

Kristaps Porzingis: 6 points

Analysis:

Based on this math, the top three would go Hauser, Holiday, White. I think that’s a pretty decent list, but you can’t discount Tatum’s overall prowess and Pritchard’s Pritchard-ness.

With the list in mind, plus my own gut feeling, I’m going to say:

1. Sam Hauser

2. Jrue Holiday

3. Payton Pritchard

4. Jayson Tatum

5. Derrick White

6 Al Horford

7. Jaylen Brown

8. Kristaps Porzingis

Hauser doesn’t have the same experience as the other guys, but this is for an open, in-rhythm shot, and no one on the team is better in that area.

Not bad when your Finals MVP is seventh on the list. You could make a case for a bunch of guys, and there’s no right answer.

What do you think? Feel free to weigh in and let me know.