Jayson Tatum & Jaylen Brown: best duo in the NBA?

Since Danny Ainge decided to build around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, there has been endless talk about how they would never win together. Nonetheless, last June, the two Boston Celtics wings became NBA champions and raised Banner 18. At the dawn of a new NBA season, are the Jays now the best duo in the league?

Let’s brainstorm and select some of their contemporaries. I picked the five duos I consider the best in the league at the moment. Feel free to drop your top-5 in the comments. Here are mine:

• Nikola Jokic & Jamal Murray
• LeBron James & Anthony Davis
• Giannis Antetokounmpo & Damian Lillard
• Kevin Durant & Devin Booker
• Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving

Among this list, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum stand out for different reasons. The first is that it’s the only duo with two players in similar positions. You could argue that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both point guards, but they have totally different approaches to the game and relationships with the ball. The other big difference—and this is where we’re going to start digging—is that last season, out of these duos, the Jays were the only one that performed better when one of them was on the bench.

A singular duo

During the 2,180 minutes while the Jays were both on the court, the Celtics outscored their opponents by 7.5 points per 100 possessions. When Jayson sat and Jaylen played, the numbers went up to 8.8 points per 100 possessions. When Jaylen sat and Jayson played, the numbers increased even more, up to 16.7 points per 100 possessions… but the craziest part is that the Celtics outscored their opponents by 15.4 points per 100 possessions when both were out! Of course, the last number is due to small sample variance and garbage time. However, the trend of the Celtics performing better with only one of them on the court has persisted for years and long been a talking point for their critics and haters. But is this really a problem?

At first glance, you might want to say yes. Your team’s performance should peak when the two best players are on the floor—like with the Bucks or Nuggets. For Denver, when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were on the court, they outscored their opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions last season. You can find the same trend for the Bucks duo, with a nuclear offense when both Lillard and Giannis were on the court (124 points per 100 possessions). The same goes for Doncic and Kyrie in Dallas, or LeBron and AD in LA.

However, while these duos peak when playing together, their performance often drops when one half is out. So, while others thrive when they are together and fall apart when missing a counterpart, the Jays finds a way to keep performing at the same level, no matter the situation. Therefore, I think we can argue that although this isn’t the typical way the best duos impact team results, the Jays have a singular method of making the team better. Nonetheless, why aren’t the performances peaking when both are on the court? What’s behind these numbers suggesting the Celtics are better with one Jay on the bench?

404: Half-court synergy not found

When thinking of the Jays on the court, I have endless memories of their actions together. However, when trying to map them, I realized that most of their highlights come from transition. Indeed, the Jays might be the best duo at running quickly to the other side and punishing an opponent’s turnovers. Both are excellent transition players and can often make each other better on a fast break. However, most of a basketball game is played in the half-court, and this is where the Jays might lack synergy.

The problem doesn’t stem from the redundancy of their position. From my point of view, it is more about the coaching approach and utilization. Also, while they may lack synergy between themselves, their synergy is improved by the roster that Brad Stevens has assembled around them.

Recently, Mike Shearer wrote about the Celtics’ most prolific passing tandems. If you were expecting to find Jayson assisting Jaylen, or vice versa, you won’t. Tatum assisted Brown only 45 times, ranking 14th, while Brown assisted Tatum just 31 times. To put that into context, Brown’s 31 assists to Tatum are the same amount as Horford and Pritchard assists to JT.

Again, there are two ways to view this. First, you could argue that the Jays’ lack of synergy is really problematic. On the other hand, you could take a more positive view and acknowledge the synergy they have with the rest of the team. Both Jayson and Jaylen have great chemistry with Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Horford. We can also see growing synergy with Sam Hauser for both of them. Nonetheless, there are still moments when we see them directly play off each other. Here are some examples from last season:

JB baseline cut while JT Post-Up:

Post-Up JT with a Pin Down for JB:

Horns Flare:

Drive & Kick:

On the other side of the court, they have a far better synergy. Defensively, Jayson Tatum might be the best help defensive player in the NBA. He’s quick, long, and reads the game really well. His ability to always be well positioned helps the Celtics defense tremendously. While Jayson is one the best off-ball defensive players, Jaylen Brown has shown great point-of-attack defensive talent during the last playoffs. Therefore, while they lack offensive symbiosis, their defensive synergy is undisputed.

Now that we look at how the Jays perform for the Celtics, where do they rank among the league best duos?

Best duo?

I have a hard time putting them above the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. When they are both on the floor, the Nuggets might be the best team in the league. The problem is more about the rest of the team. Same goes with Lillard and Giannis. We haven’t seen them play in the playoffs but theoretically, they are both among the top-15 offensive players in the league and Giannis is one of the best defensive forces.

The Jays could slot in at third. Booker and Durant are maybe close to them offensively, but I’d picked Tatum and Brown’s defense and portability above the Suns duo. Then comes the Lakers. The defensive prowess of AD could be a great argument to put the Lakers duo above the Jays, but LeBron won’t get any younger. Nonetheless, their synergy is really great and they are playing in far worse spacing than the Celtics.

Are they one of the best duos, or a good duo on a great team? Again, as the numbers bear out, the Celtics still perform great and even better when one is off the court. In their championship season, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum improved enough as finishers and playmakers to raise the Celtics back to the title. They might lack synergy, but their skill set fits perfectly with the roster build around them.