Let’s go through ten statistical points I will follow next season — and so should you. I’ll introduce you to these metrics in case you’re unfamiliar with them and explain why they’ll matter. At the bottom, you’ll find links to track them yourself throughout the season. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Offensive rebounding %
Last season, the Celtics had a 24.9% offensive rebound rate, ranking 12th out of 30 teams. Pretty average, right? However, there’s more to this stat. When Kristaps Porzingis was out, the offensive rebound rate jumped to 30.6%, which would’ve made the Celtics the best offensive rebounding team in the league — better than the Knicks, who have built a significant part of their offense around this strategy.
This strategy has both offensive and defensive consequences. It creates more possessions, giving the Celtics a chance to be even more dominant offensively. However, being aggressive on the offensive glass also presents potential issues.
The bigger threat is that this could create more transition opportunities for opponents. Last season, the Celtics were the best transition defense team. If they adjust their offensive rebounding approach, that could change.
Rim protection metrics
The Celtics’ rim protection was elite last season, confirmed by three key indicators: Defensive Rim Frequency, Defensive Rim Accuracy, and Defensive FT Rate. These metrics encapsulate how well a team protects the rim. The Celtics ranked third in Defensive Rim Frequency, fifth in Defensive Rim Accuracy, and first in Defensive FT Rate.
Their elite performance was heavily influenced by Kristaps Porzingis, who acted as a roamer in the paint, playing deep drop coverage while Jrue, Derrick, Jayson, and Jaylen navigated screens. With Kristaps sidelined for months, will the Celtics maintain these elite rim protection numbers?
Jayson Tatum’s drives per game
We’ve covered this in a previous article, but Jayson Tatum’s driving game opened up so many great things for the Celtics during the NBA Finals. However, his drives per game in the regular season were relatively low. Last season, his drive volume was similar to Stephen Curry’s. No offense to the greatest shooter of all time, but Tatum’s drives should be more frequent.
Why? Because he’s really good at it! His efficiency on drives is elite, and his ability to get to the free-throw line is impressive. He’s also developed the ability to drive and kick in various situations, forcing defenses to make mistakes. Therefore, Tatum’s drives per game will be at the top of my list next season.
Jaylen Brown’s FTr+ and TS+
Let’s address one of Jaylen Brown’s puzzling weaknesses: his ability to get to the free-throw line. Last year, his FTr+ was below 100, meaning he generates fewer free throws than the average NBA player — a significant issue. Free throws are the most valuable attempts in basketball, and as an All-NBA player with so many physical advantages, Brown should get to the line more often than average. However, this hasn’t been the case for two straight seasons, directly impacting his overall scoring efficiency.
A great indicator of scoring efficiency is TS+. Like FTr+, a score of 100 is league average, while 110 means you’re 10% above average. Over the past two seasons, Brown has been at 100 — right at the average.
Now, I’m not saying Brown is an average player. He creates on high volume, mostly self-generated shots. But to become a more efficient offensive engine, he needs to find a way to draw more fouls and get to the line.
Derrick White’s USG% and True Shooting %
As Oliver Fox said, Derrick White is perfect. With an 18.6% usage rate and 61.1% true shooting percentage, he’s one of the most efficient guards in the league. Yet, he does it at an average volume. At 30, White is at a crossroads. Will he remain one of the league’s best role players, or will he take on more?
There are signs he could take on a bigger role. His pull-up numbers have increased, along with his driving. His self-creation has improved while maintaining high efficiency. Can he take the next step and have a bigger volume?
Jrue Holiday’s catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts
As mentioned in my previous article, Jrue Holiday has transitioned from pull-up threes to catch-and-shoot threes. Several questions linger around this evolution. Was it temporary? Can he become an even bigger catch-and-shoot threat? What level of efficiency can he reach with these shots?
Sam Hauser’s AST:Usg
If you’re unfamiliar with AST:Usg, it measures a player’s share of creation for others. Sam Hauser has been low in this metric throughout his career, primarily serving as a finisher without much passing responsibility.
However, if he wants to increase his minutes, adding a layer of playmaking might help. Joe Mazzulla values players who can both space the floor but also play within it. If Hauser can improve his passing, he could benefit from the very spacing he creates — a basketball virtuous circle.
Payton Pritchard’s Rim Frequency and Efficiency
Last year, Payton Pritchard made headlines with half-court shots. What impressed me more, though, was his improvement at the rim. With 74% rim efficiency, Pritchard was the second most efficient point guard at the rim, behind only Luka Doncic. Of course, the volume isn’t the same, but if Pritchard can maintain this efficiency with a higher volume, it could open up a lot for him and the Celtics bench.
Xavier Tillman’s STL% and BLK%
When Brad Stevens traded for Xavier Tillman, the former Grizzly was one of the few NBA players with a steal rate and block rate above 2.5%. The Celtics weren’t strong in these areas last season — not due to lack of talent, but due to a conservative, drop-coverage approach. With Porzingis out, could Tillman’s ability to generate turnovers and block shots help boost the Celtics’ transition game?
Al Horford’s minutes
Last but not least: Uncle Al’s minutes. Last season, when the Celtics needed him most, Horford delivered on the biggest stage—thanks to playing just 26 minutes per game during the regular season, allowing him to play big minutes when it mattered. With Kristaps Porzingis out, how much will the Celtics be able to protect Horford’s old but strong legs?
Below are links where you can track the data mentioned, season-long:
