The Celtics and Mavericks meet for Game 2 of the NBA Finals. This is the Mavericks third trip to the Finals as a franchise. The first two times in the Finals, they faced the Miami Heat. In 2006, the Mavericks lost to a Wade and Shaquille O’Neal-led Heat squad in six games in the Finals. In 2011, when they won the title, they defeated the Heat’s “Big 3” of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in their first season as a super team.
The Celtics have won the Finals 17 times and have lost in the Finals an additional 5 times. This is the 2nd time in 3 seasons that the Celtics have made it to the Finals. In 2022, the Celtics lost in 6 games to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. The next most recent appearance was in 2010 when an injury to Kendrick Perkins and some questionable referee shenanigans resulted in a loss in 7 games.
The Celtics dominated the Mavericks in Game 1 but that doesn’t guarantee anything going forward. History would indicate that the Celtics cannot relax. The Mavericks lost Game 1 to both the OKC Thunder and LA Clippers in the first 2 rounds. In both of those series, they came back to win Game 2. They are 4-1 in Game 2 under Jason Kidd. The Celtics also won Game 1 against the Heat and the Cavaliers and then lost Game 2 in both of those series. They also won Game 1 in 2022 but lost the series. They have to keep playing with maximum effort and as a team on both ends of the court.
Home teams that win Game 1 in a 7 game series go on to win the series 78% of the time. Since 1984, teams that win the first two games at home go on to win the series 92.6% of the time (320-28). The Celtics are 22-1 when they lead a best of 7 series 2-0. Their only defeat was in 2018 against LeBron James’ Cavaliers.
The Celtics once again have no one on the injury report. Kristaps Porzingis was clearly feeling good for his return in Game 1. He came off the bench in Game 1 and the big question for this game is if he will once again come off the bench or return to the starting lineup. On one hand, starting him would reunite the starting 5 that was so dominant in the regular season and it may throw a curve to the Mavs who would expect Horford to once again to start. On the other hand, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it and the Celtics have been playing very well with Horford starting. I’m going to go with Horford starting once again, but I could be wrong.
For the Mavericks, Olivier-Maxence Prosper was questionable due to an ankle injury for Game 1. He has been removed from the report at this time and will be available but won’t likely see much playing time. Luka Doncic has been regularly listed on their injury report due to a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness but has not missed a game yet. As of this morning he has been downgraded from probable to questionable with a chest injury. He was downgraded after he missed the media portion of Dallas’ morning shootaround Sunday. In spite of this, I would be very surprised if he doesn’t play.
Probable Celtics Starters
Celtics Reserves
Kristaps Porzingis
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Injuries/Out
None listed
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Mavericks Starters
Mavericks Reserves
Dante Exum
Josh Green
Tim Hardaway, Jr
Jaden Hardy
Maxi Kleber
Markieff Morris
AJ Lawson
Dereck Lively II
Markieff Morris
Dwight Powell
Two-Way Players
Greg Brown III
Alex Fudge
Brandon Williams
Injuries/Out
Luka Doncic (ankle/knee/chest) questionable
Head Coach
Jason Kidd
Key Matchups
Jrue Holiday vs Luka Doncic
Doncic finished Game 1 with 30 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 steals while shooting 46.2% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. In 2 games against the Celtics in the regular season, he averaged 35 points, 15 rebounds, 12 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 47.3% from the field and 29.4% from beyone the arc. He is very tough to defend as he can shoot from pretty much anywhere on the court. The Celtics did a decent job of defending him in Game 1 and they need to work hard in this game to limit him once again.
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Derrick White
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
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Kyrie Irving
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Derrick White vs Kyrie Irving
In Game 1, Irving finished with 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals while shooting 31.6% from the field and 0-5 on threes. In the 2 games against the Celtics this season, he finished with 21 points, 5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 41.9% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc. Irving said that the boos from Celtics fans didn’t affect him and that he expected the crowd to be louder. I’m guessing that a combination of the hostile crowd and tough Celtics defense affected his play. He is going to try hard to play better in this game and the Celtics need to try to make sure that he doesn’t.
Honorable Mention
Jayson Tatum vs PJ Washington
Washington was a big addition to the Mavs at the trade deadline. In Game 1, Washington finished with 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 assist while shooting 45% from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc. In 2 games against the Celtics this season, he averaged 16 points, 4 rebounds, 0.5 assist, 1 block and 1 steal. The Celtics need to keep him out of the paint and off of the boards. Hopefully Tatum won’t take the bait from Jason Kidd about who is the best player on the team and will continue to play team ball and not force things when he is being doubled.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the number one key to winning games, especially in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Mavs are averaging 106.9 points per game (7th) while the Celtics average 111.1 points per game (2nd). The Mavs are 8th with a defensive rating of 111.3 while the Celtics are 3rd with a defensive rating of 107.8. When the Celtics struggle on offense, they have to be able to stop the other team from scoring. The Mavs are likely to attempt more 3’s this game and the Celtics need to be ready to defend them tighter on the perimeter. The Celtics need to play tough, lock down defense for the entire game. The Mavericks have players who can put up a lot of points in a hurry if the Celtics don’t play tough team defense. Defense won Game 1 and is likely going to be what wins this series.
Rebound – Second to defense, rebounding is the key to winning. One of the few times I have agreed with Pat Riley was when he said “No rebounds, no rings.” Much of rebounding is effort and the Celtics have to put out extra effort to win the battle of the boards. When they work hard on the boards, it usually follows through to the rest of the game as well. The Celtics are averaging 43.9 rebounds per game (3rd) while the Mavs are averaging 43.1 rebounds per game (4th). In Game 1, the Celtics out-rebounded the Mavs 47-43. The Celtics need to put out extra effort on the boards to keep the Mavs from getting extra possessions and second chance points and to give the same to themselves.
3 Point Shooting – Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. The Celtics are 1st in the playoffs with 16.5 three pointers made, while the Mavs are 3rd with 14.6 three pointers made. The Celtics are 1st with 42.5 threes attempted while the Mavs are 2nd with 39.5 threes attempted. The Celtics are 62-9 this season when they hit at least 15 three pointers. Only 4 teams in history have reached the Finals while averaging at least 14.3 threes made per game. The Mavericks are likely going to make a concerted effort to run the Celtics off the 3 point line in this game. If the 3’s aren’t falling, the Celtics need to go to the hoop and not shoot themselves out of the game. On the other hand, the Celtics need to work hard to limit the Mavs 3 pointers.
Maximum Effort for 48 Minutes – The Celtics have to play hard from the opening tip to the final buzzer. It will be important to get off to a strong start. Dallas is 8-1 when they win the first quarter and the Celtics are 11-0 when they win the first quarter. They have to play hard on offense and especially on defense with no let up. The Mavericks are the toughest team that they have faced in the playoffs and nothing less than full effort from every player every minute they are in will do. The Celtics need to be aggressive in defending, going to the basket and. especially in rebounding. The two games the Celtics lost in these playoffs were mostly due to a lack of effort, especially on defense. They can’t let the Mavs play harder than them if they want to win this game.
X-Factors
Home Court Advantage – The Celtics worked hard all season to obtain home court advantage for the entire playoffs. However, they haven’t used that to their advantage in the playoffs. Their only 2 losses so far in the playoffs were at home while they are undefeated on the road so far. Their 2 losses were also at home. After Kyrie’s claim that the Garden crowd wasn’t as loud as he expected, I expect the fans to be extra loud in this one. The Celtics need to use that as motivation to play their best for their fans and win their games at home and hopefully, it will rattle the Mavs.
Experience – Seven of the Celtics players have at least 5 games of Finals experience, including 4 of the starters plus Al Horford. Combined, the Celtics have 44 games of Finals experience. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have a total of just 23 games of Finals experience. Kyrie Irving has 13 of those 23 games with the rest of the team having just 10 games. This is the 2nd time in just 3 years that Tatum, Brown and Horford have been to the Finals. The Celtics need to use their experience and also to use the Mavericks’ lack of Finals experience to their advantage.
Officiating – The officiating can always be an x-factor. Every crew calls the game a little differently and teams need to adjust to how the game is being called. Will they call the game tight or will they let them play? The Celtics can’t let the officiating take away their focus and they have to adjust to the way the refs are calling it. In these playoffs, we have seen several games lost on bad calls at the end of games. The Celtics need to play hard and build a lead and not allow the refs to take the game away on a bad call at the end.
Official Report
Crew Chief – Tony Brothers
If there is one referee that strikes fear into every fan base when they see his name, it is Tony Brothers. He was recently voted the 2nd worst referee in the league by a poll of NBA players. Only Scott Foster was voted worse. Brothers has a home win/loss record of 43-31. The Celtics are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Brothers, including Game 5 against the Cavaliers and Game 1 against the Pacers. The Mavericks are 5-5 in their last 10 with Brothers, including the Game 4 loss to the Clippers, Game 1 loss to OKC, Game 6 win over OKC and Game 3 win over Minnesota. As crew chief, he calls 50% of fouls against the road team and 50% against the home team. Over his career, has a win/loss record of 66-51 with Boston and 75-55 with Dallas. He can be good and he can be very bad depending on the game. Like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.
Referee – John Goble
Goble has a home win/loss record of 23-13. On the crew, he calls 53% of fouls against the road team and 47% on the home team. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Goble including the Game 2 loss to the Cavs, the game 4 win over Miami and the Game 3 win over Indiana. Over his career, he has a home win/loss record of 40-26 with Boston and 48-32 with Dallas. Goble and Udonis Haslem were teammates on their Miami high school team.
Umpire – Bill Kennedy
Kennedy has a home win/loss record of 37-36 this season. Over his career, Boston has a win/loss record of 46-39 while Dallas has a win/loss record of 58-49 with Kennedy. In the playoffs he calls 54% on the road team and 46% on the home team. The Celtics are 9-1 in their last 10 games with Kennedy, including Game 1 win over Miami and Game 2 loss to Cleveland. The Mavericks are also 9-1 in their last 10 with Kennedy, including Game 3 win over the Clippers, Game 3 win over OKC and Game 4 loss to the Wolves. In 2015, After Rajon Rondo berated NBA referee Bill Kennedy with an anti-gay slur but Rondo is long gone and it didn’t seem to affect the way he officiates Celtics games.
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