The Mavs are clearly the best competition the Celtics will face in this year’s playoffs. So, I asked the staff about which matchups (aside from guarding Luka which we cover elsewhere) that are key to their success (and how are those different from the prior rounds).
Jack Simone
The Celtics bigs vs. the Mavericks’ guards. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to look to attack Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis as much as possible. Donovan Mitchell, Tyler Herro, and Andrew Nembhard have already been picking on Horford, and it’s going to be more of the same in the NBA Finals. Horford isn’t capable of keeping up with Doncic and Irving. The same can be said for Porzingis. But if they can hold their own for long enough to get help from the rest of the Celtics’ defense, they should be in a good spot.
Jeff Clark
The Celtics thrive on picking on opponents weak defenders. Sometimes they focus too much on that and get out of rhythm. But you can’t argue with results and they’ve been feasting on mismatches all year long. So expect to see Kyrie Irving targeted by anyone with size. You can also expect quicker players to drive right at Luka Doncic. Both have improved as defenders, but this is the Finals where every minor weakness gets attacked mercilessly. I’m also interested to see how the Mavs react to the Celtics shooters, in particular if/when Porzingis is back and pulling their bigs away from the basket.
Sam LaFrance
The best part about the Mavs (from a Celtics perspective) is that they don’t have two-way stars. They have two of the most talented offensive players ever in Luka and Kyrie, but neither of those guys is a lockdown defender, though both have made an effort to take their intensity up a notch in the playoffs. Boston has a great chance to try and make at least one of those guys as much of a net-neutral as possible. I’d love to see some Jrue Holiday post ups if they’re able to get Irving on him. Holiday has done a tremendous job of punishing smaller defenders all spring. As for Doncic, the best practice is to just make him work on defense. It’s a good idea to try to target him as much as possible so he has to expend energy on that end of the floor.
Mike Dynon
Not an individual matchup, but a team category. According to NBA Stats, in the regular season the Celtics made a league-high 16.5 three-pointers per game while making 38.8% of their attempts. Dallas was third with 14.7 threes per game on 36.9% accuracy. Boston also leads in the postseason with 14.6 makes per game (36.8%) to the Mavs’ 12.6 (37.2%).
Why is that important? According to StatMuse, when the Celtics made 15 or more triples in the regular season, they were 54-9. Fewer than 15, they were 10-9. This postseason, they’re 7-0 when sinking 15 or more from the arc. Threes have brought the Celtics within reach of Banner 18, and threes will decide if they can grab it.
Trevor Hass
This isn’t an overly complicated answer, but to me, this series will largely come down to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s efficiency. Some combination of Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington and Josh Green will likely be on them most of the time. Tatum and Brown should take that personally. They need to continue to dominate, as they have all playoffs, and be the best versions of themselves. It’s not Jaylen and Jayson vs. Kyrie and Luka. It’s Jaylen and Jayson vs. Jaylen and Jayson. I don’t think that’s too different from previous rounds, but it will of course be magnified on this stage. There’s less margin for error against the aforementioned duo. If they’re great, the Celtics should win. If not, it’s anyone’s series.
Drew Doxy
The most important matchup will be between Joe Mazzulla and Jason Kidd. Both have shown real creativity through the early rounds, and they’re not afraid to try some wacky hijinks defensively. How they prepare their respective teams defensively for the talent on the other side will determine a lot of how this series goes.
Noa Dalzell
If Jrue Holiday is able to exploit his defender the way that he did against Cleveland and Indiana, the Celtics will be in good shape. How effective the Celtics’ backcourt can be defensively will be key here just considering how much of Dallas’s firepower comes from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Mark Aboyoun
Similar to Jack’s point, I think when Boston switches on defense and we have Porzingis, Horford, or Kornet on Kyrie or Luka how can they stay in front and contest their shot. Like it or not, Kyrie is still one of the most creative players in the league and he can get to his spot when he’s matched with a big man. The help defense needs to be ready to switch or step into the lane and draw a charge.
This is different from past rounds because Tyrese, Garland, and Herro are still levels behind Kyrie and Luka. The Mavs backcourt thrives on mismatches. We may have to go smaller than we’re used to at times with more Tillman minutes if Luka and Kyrie are finding success against our bigs.
