Halfway home: Pacers-Celtics preview – CelticsBlog

Halfway home.

I moved ten hours away from family for grad school and would often make the drive for the holidays. Scranton was halfway home for me. For the Celtics, it’s right now.

When you are on a long journey, the halfway point is an important step, one that brings a bit of energy and enthusiasm. From here on out, we are closer to our destination than our origin. Eight more wins.

The second to last stop for the Celtics is Indianapolis and the Pacers. I’ll be honest. I was cheating over the last few days and tried to get a jump start on my research for this piece. I did all of it on the Knicks. Whoops. But here are those plucky, young Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs. However, their next opponent ain’t the Knicks or Bucks.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the Pacers top-9 sorted by minutes.

They’ve got a pretty clear pecking order with their top-5 all playing 32+ minutes, their 3 main guys off the bench at 19 and then Isaiah Jackson makes the occasional meaningful cameo (and he gave them some very solid minutes against the Knicks at times).

If you’ve not checked in on old-friend-turned-enemy Aaron Nesmith, he’s worked himself into a hardnosed plus-defender that can hit open threes (43% in the regular season, but has been off in the playoffs) and attack a closeout in his signature psychotic style.

Myles Turner is a solid rim protecting big that can and will shoot threes. He’s shot the lights out in the playoffs and is comfortable putting the ball on the deck once or twice and finishing. He’s a positive rim protector, but slow-footed defender, which we will get to later.

Andrew Nembhard is a smart, effective off-guard that can run a pick and roll, make an open 3, and pick out a pass. He works on defense and knows the scheme, but his slight frame can let him down at times.

Ben Sheppard is a one-dimensional shooter that’s held up better than expected on the defensive end but can definitely be attacked. Obi Toppin is high-flyer that injects athleticism and pace into the Pacers attack.

TJ McConnell is TJ McConnell. Does all the things you absolutely love when he’s on your team, and absolutely hate when he’s not. He doesn’t stop moving, he’s pesky as hell on defense, and he makes middies at a frustrating rate. He will have a big moment in this series. We will all be annoyed.

Tyrese Haliburton is obviously the marquee name, but you can make a very good argument that Pascal Siakam has been the best Pacer in the postseason. They’re a massive 17.3 points per 100 possessions better when Siakam is on the court than off, and even Haliburton isn’t immune to the no-Siakam minutes.

Hali is, of course, an incredibly impactful offensive player, and his basketball ethos has infected everyone on the Pacers. They play fast and they move the ball. They easily lead the playoffs in passes per game, often zipping the ball side-to-side, seeking any crack in the defense. When they find it, they exploit it.

They also lead the playoffs in assists per game (29.8 to the Cs’ 22.7), and that’s not just a pace thing; they also easily top the playoffs in assist percentage as well (67.6% to 57.9%). Speaking of pace, the Pacers actually haven’t played all that fast in the playoffs (10th in pace, the Cs are dead last), but I think some of that has to do with their opponents. I fully expect Indy to push the pace as much as they can against an elite Boston halfcourt defense.

It all adds up to a potent offensive attack. Per Cleaning the Glass (which filters out garbage time), the Pacers are 1st in playoff offensive rating, and it isn’t close. Their 125.7 ORTG is 5.3 points per 100 better than second place, which happens to be the Boston Celtics. Slowing Indy’s offense will be the number 1 priority for the Celtics, like me grabbing beef jerky before a long trip.

But then you get to the other side of the ball. Per CTG, Indy has the 15th ranked defense in the Playoffs (CTG does include play-in teams for some reason), and it’s not like they’ve played offensive juggernauts. Orlando was a well below average offensive team in the regular season, and the Knicks, while good by the numbers, propped up their offense with a crazy offensive rebounding rate. Simply put, Indiana’s defense is there for the taking.

Which brings us to the meat, or beef jerky if you will. There are three things I think will be kesy to the Celtics winning this series.

Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Force Siakam out of the paint

If Haliburton is the engine, Siakam is the brakes. He’s leading the team in scoring, but it’s more than that. When things look bad, when a possession is about to hit a wall, Indy gives it to Siakam. He’s stopped them short of disaster on many possessions throughout the playoffs and is a massive reason Indy’s made it this far. Yes, that Pascal Siakam, the one we played in the NBA bubble. I know. I’m surprised. too.

His play doesn’t have many indicators of an anomaly or hot shooting streak. He’s only at 32.4% from 3 in the playoffs. Instead, he’s attacking regularly and aggressively, which has always been the foundation of his game. He is shooting 63.6% from the corners, but that’s on small volume (0.8 attempts) and is balanced out by a dreadful 20.0% from above the break on 1.9 attempts.

Most of Siakam’s damage has been done from 2, especially in the paint. He’s shooting 67.6% from the restricted area (5.2 attempts), 57.6% from the paint outside the restricted area (4.5 attempts), and 46.0% from mid-range (3.8 attempts). While Siakam’s mid-range percentage is quite good for that type of shot, it’s worlds less efficient than anything in the paint.

The strategy against Siakam is simple in purpose, but less so in practice. Siakam really likes to catch the ball, usually on the wings, faceup, and attack off the dribble. He’s got an excellent handle for his size, and uses a flurry of awkward, but effective, moves to get himself into the paint.

He’s sort of a less effective, jumbo version of Jaylen Brown in the way he likes to attack in semi-transition.

While the faceup game is his bread and butter, Siakam will also fight for deep post position and favors economical moves to get something up quick.

Indy also uses him as a ballhandler, where he likes to get off the ball early, then cut into his favored spots on the court. Here’s one example that’s a bit mired by the atrocious Knicks defensive effort.

They’ll also deploy him as the screen setter in the pick-and-roll with Hali. Siakam likes to catch on the short roll where he can make plays or get into an iso against a rotating defense.

The key to defending Siakam is all about positioning. First, you need to find him in transition or semi-transition early. If you let him waltz into the paint or to the block without your defense set, he will punish you. Second, you need to keep him in front and be physical. Jaylen Brown has mastered this. He’s regularly bullied Siakam in their matchups. Siakam isn’t a high-flyer these days, and his first step if pretty mechanical. Brown’s combo of strength and quickness is the perfect antidote for Pascal’s game. Stay down on his pump fakes and make him feel you when he puts it on the floor.

If you pick him up early and don’t shy away from physicality, you can bait Siakam into tough fallaways and mid-range jumpers. On this play, the Knicks let Siakam get a little too deep, but Miles McBride does a good job of getting his body into Siakam, and there’s various help defenders digging and recovering, just enough pressure to make Siakam uncomfortable.

Here, Donte DiVincenzo does a good job getting around Siakam’s screen, and Hartenstein makes sure Siakam has to come back for the ball on the catch. He faces up from 20+ feet and the possession ends in a contested long two.

Siakam is not shy; he can be baited into suboptimal shots. Staying in front of him is paramount to shutting him down, and doing so has a big impact on Indy’s offense. Siakam’s in-between game is very conducive to the playoffs, which is why Indy uses him as a late clock shot generator. The key will be keeping those late clock shots outside of the paint.

Slow Indy down

Indiana can be terrifying in transition. They are a team of willing passers and solid athletes captained by the best passing guard in the NBA.

The Cs will need to make sure they are getting back in transition, offensive rebounds be damned. So far, the Celtics have done an incredible job of limiting transition opportunities. They’ve got one of the highest ratios of defensive possessions that end up as half-court possessions. Even the best halfcourt offense is woeful compared to an average transition attack, and Indy is no exception. It will also be important to limit live ball turnovers, but that essentially goes without saying.

But that’s not all there is to limiting Indy’s pace. It’s not just about transition opportunities and quick shots. It’s about their tempo in the halfcourt. Indy is a team full of shooters, and if you let anyone get downhill and get the defense into rotation, they can hit you quick. They aren’t afraid of multiple drive and kicks, and just about anyone that touches it can shoot it or put it on the deck. Their attack is very similar to the Celtics in that way.

The Cs will need to keep the Pacers, and especially Haliburton, in front of them to limit straight line drives. Hali drives them forward, and if he’s regularly seeing the paint and drawing help, then things can get dangerous very quickly.

For that reason, I anticipate we will see a lot of drop coverage, with Joe Mazzulla electing to concede some pull-up 3s in favor of limiting their drive and kick game, at least to start. We may see Al Horford creep higher up towards the screen to prevent open pull-ups, which will force Hali to drive into the teeth of the defense. If we can resist the temptation to help off shooters when he does, the hope is that it will lead to Haliburton opting for middies, floaters, and contested layups opposed to getting his teammates involved. Hali is a wonderful player, but turning him into a scorer, especially from 2, limits Indy’s dangerous egalitarian attack and can turn the game into a slowed down dog fight and exactly where the Celtics want to be.

Go after Myles Turner

The Celtics have an embarrassment of choice on ways to attack Indy’s defense. The only true plus defenders in their starting lineup are Siakam and Nesmith (and this one is debatable). Turner is an excellent rim protector, but he can absolutely be attacked when lured out of the paint and forced to defend in space. I anticipate that will be the primary way the Cs test their defense.

The simplest way to go at Turner is use whoever he’s guarding as the screen setter for a pick-and-pop. It’s something we went to often in our matchups against Indy this season (and against any team, we run this action a ton). Turner has no choice but to play a deep drop, and it can lead to open pull-ups or pick and pop 3s for the screen setter.

But the benefits aren’t just a dozen or so decent looks above the break out of pick and pop. Turner’s lack of mobility often leaves him on an island and leaves Indy’s defense susceptible to drives.

Tatum rejects the screen, Turner is in decent position, and Tatum just waltzes on by for a bucket.

He just doesn’t do a very good job of staying connected to a spaced out big and getting back to the rim. For a good shot blocker, he finds himself in no-man’s land way too often. Too far from the rim to help, and not close enough to the shooting big to bother the shot. You can almost feel how uncomfortable in space he is through the TV.

Even if he’s not directly involved in a pick-and-roll, Turner causes problems for Indy’s defense. Look at him here where the Cs run an inverted post-up with JB posting and KP spacing out to the wing. Turner tries to dig and recover, a very common defensive strategy against a post up, and he’s so slow at getting down and back that it undermines Indy’s defense and eventually leads to an open Jrue corner 3.

And forget about it if he has to switch. It’s a parade to the rim where he often has no choice but to foul.

Boston is somewhat uniquely built to put Turner into space and pick Indy’s defense apart since they have two centers that can space. KP probably doesn’t see a lot of this series, but anytime Al Horford is on the court, Turner can be exploited.

Indiana presents a different challenge than the Celtics’ first and second round opponents. Their offense is easily the best unit they’ve faced in the playoffs, but after going against two very good defenses, the Cs should find offense easy to come by. Indy can turn the game into a race, and the Celtics should do everything they can to prevent that, but the Celtics go pretty fast, too. I expect the Pacers to steal at least one game, but I think we might be well on our way to final destination. Now it’s time to jump back in the car and turn the key.

Celtics in 5