The Celtics look to close out the series in a gentlemen’s sweep as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Celtics opened the Eastern Conference Semifinals with a 120-95 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Boston. The Celtics then came out flat in Game 2 and lost 118-94 as they struggled to score and forgot how to defend and rebound. Their effort just wasn’t there in that game.
The Celtics bounced back in Game 3 to win 106-93 after leading by 9 at the half and starting the 3rd quarter with a 14-0 run. They withstood a couple runs by the Cavs to hold on for the win to put them up 2-1 and take back home court advantage in the series. Game 4 was a battle with the Cavs playing tough without their star who was out with a calf injury but the Celtics won 109-102 to put the Celtics up 3-1 in the series.
Ordinarily, playing at home would give a team a big advantage, but the Celtics have already lost 2 games in Boston in these playoffs. They are 14-14 at home in their last 3 post seasons. Whatever the reason for this anomaly, the Celtics need to come into this game ready to defend their home court and play with energy, focus and effort for 48 minutes. They need to close this series out and get some rest while waiting for New York and Indiana to finish their series.
Teams that go up 3-1 go on to win the series 95.2% of the time. 285 teams have built a 3-1 lead in a best of 7 series. 272 of those teams have gone on to win the series and just 13 teams have come back from 1-3 to win the series, including the 1968 and 1981 Celtics and the 2016 Cavaliers. The Celtics have built a 3-1 and gone on to win those series 31 times. After starting 1-1 in a series, the Celtics have gone on to win those series 7 times out of 11. After going 1-1 on the road to start a series, the Cavaliers are 0-2 in series wins.
Kristaps Porzingis remains on the Celtics injury report. He is dealing with a calf injury that he suffered in Game 4 of Boston’s first-round series against the Heat. He has been at the Celtics’ practices, putting up shots. He is also walking normally without a limp, but the Celtics are going to be very cautious with him as he will be needed in later series if they advance. Luke Kornet played in Game 4 after being questionable due to calf tightness and is not on the injury list as of now.
The Cavaliers have already ruled out Ty Jerome as he continues to recover from ankle surgery. Craig Porter, Jr has missed 11 games with an ankle sprain and is listed as doubtful for this game. Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable for this game after aggravating a calf injury in the fourth quarter of Game 3. He left the game with 1:19 left and went straight to the locker room. His status is a game time decision but reports are that he is not expected to play.
Jarrett Allen played very well in Cleveland’s first 4 games against the Magic averaging 17.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks. He took a hit from Franz Wagner in Game 4 and sustained a rib injury that kept him out of the last 3 games of that series. He missed the first 3 games in this series, and is listed as questionable for this game. His status is also listed as a game time decision. Caris LeVert aggravated a knee injury in Game 4 and is questionable for this game.
LeVert started in place of Donovan Mitchell in Game 4. I’ve included him in the starting lineup but at this point, I’m not sure who will start due to the injuries. Mitchell may return but a calf strain is not something he should try to play through because the danger of an Achilles injury increases when trying to play through a calf strain. If Mitchell plays, he will start at SG. If he sits, and LeVert is able to play, LeVert will likely get the start. If LeVert can’t play, I’m not sure who will get the start.
Probable Celtics Starters
Celtics Reserves
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (calf) out
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Cavaliers Starters
Cavaliers Reserves
Damian Jones
Sam Merrill
Georges Niang
Marcus Morris, Sr
Tristan Thompson
Dean Wade
Two Way Players
Emoni Bates
Isaiah Mobley
Craig Porter, Jr
Injuries/Out
Ty Jerome (ankle) out
Craig Porter, Jr (ankle) doubtful
Jarrett Allen (ribs) questionable
Donovan Mitchell (calf) questionable
Caris LeVert (knee) questionable
Head Coach
JB Bickerstaff
Key Matchups
Jrue Holiday vs Darius Garland
If Mitchell is out, Garland becomes the go to player for the Cavs. In the playoffs, Garland is averaging 16.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steals per game. He is shooting 44.8% from the field and 37.3% from beyond the arc. In Game 4, he finished with 30 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals while shooting 44.4% from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc. If Mitchell is out, slowing down Garland is once again key.
Al Horford vs Evan Mobley
Mobley is averaging 14.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.2 blocks in the playoffs. He is shooting 54.1% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he finished with 17 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 block, while shooting 66.7% from the field and he didn’t take a 3. In Game 2, he finished with 21 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. He shot 60% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. In Game 3, he finished with 17 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 steal while shooting 63.6% from the field and going 0-1 from beyond the arc. In Game 4, he finished with 19 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 61.5% from the field and 1-1 from three. The Celtics need to try to keep him out of the paint and off the boards. If Jarrett Allen can play, he would be the matchup here.
Honorable Mention
Derrick White vs Caris LeVert
LeVert is averaging 10.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game in the playoffs. He is shooting 43.1% from the field and 18.2% from beyond the arc. In Game 4, he got the start for Mitchell and finished with 19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals while shooting 50% from the field and 12.5% from beyond the arc. If Mitchell can play, White vs Mitchell would be the key matchup. This would be a good time for another big Derrick White game on both ends of the court.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always a key to winning games and especially in the playoffs when defense becomes even more important. The Celtics have a defensive rating of 105.5, which is 3rd in the playoffs. Cavaliers have a 109.5 defensive rating, which is 4th in the playoffs. The Celtics owe their 3 wins in this series to playing tough defense and they can blame their Game 2 loss to a lack of defense on their part. The Celtics once again locked down the Cavs on defense down the stretch in Game 4 and once again, got the win. The Celtics must play lock down defense from start to finish with no let up if they hope to win this game.
Rebound – As the rebounding battle has gone, so have the games. Next to defense, rebounding is the next biggest key to winning. Much of rebounding is effort and desire and so when they put out that extra effort to win the rebound battle, it usually carries through to the rest of their game. The same is true when they slack off on effort and allow themselves to be out-rebounded. In the first round, the Celtics won every game they out-rebounded the Heat and lost the only game the Heat had more rebounds than them. The Celtics out-rebounded the Cavs in the first game 55-38 but once again, in Game 2, they were out-rebounded by the Cavs 44-31 and they lost the game. In Game 3 they once again out-rebounded the Cavs 44-35 and they won. In Game 4, they out-rebounded the Cavs 48-32 and got the win. The Celtics must work harder to grab rebounds than the Cavaliers if they want to win.
Effort and Focus for 48 Minutes – The Celtics have to play every minute with extra effort. The Cavs play hard and so the Celtics need to match that effort and play even harder. The team that plays harder and is more aggressive is usually the team that comes out on top and that also gets the better whistle. The Celtics also have to stay focused. They have to focus on taking good shots and making them and on playing as a team and making the right play every time. They also have to keep that effort and focus up for 48 minutes with no let up and no collapse. This is especially true if Mitchell is out once again, as the Celtics tend to let up when their opponent is missing a key player.
Bench Play – The Celtics need to get help from their reserves. The Celtics bench loses a lot with Al Horford moving into the starting lineup and the Celtics have been depending on just 3 players to contribute off the bench. The Celtics bench outscored the Cavs bench 24-15 in Game 1. However, in Game 2, the Cavs bench out scored the Celtics bench 30-25, with Caris LeVert scoring 21. In Game 3, the Cavs bench outscored the Celtics bench 20-13, although Payton Pritchard hit one of the biggest shots of the game. In Game 4, the Celtics bench out scored the Cavs bench 22-17 with Payton Pritchard putting up 11 and Luke Kornet with 9. They will need to get good production off the bench in this game as well.
X-Factors
Home vs Road – The Celtics worked hard in the regular season to get home court for the playoffs. They lost only 4 games at home in the regular season. However, they have struggled at home for some reason in the playoffs, They are just 14-14 at home in the last 3 post seasons. The only games they have lost in these playoffs were at home. The Celtics need to protect home court and use the crowd support for motivation. Both teams had to travel after Monday’s game, but the Cavs have to deal with staying in hotels and playing on an unfamiliar court and in front of hostile fans. They are also 1-10 on the road in the playoffs under JB Bickerstaff with that 1 win in Game 2 in Boston. The Celtics need to use home court to their advantage and fight hard for a win.
Close Out Game – Close out games are the hardest games to win because the opponent is desperate with their backs against the wall and tend to play harder for that reason. It is human nature to tend to let up, knowing that you have more chances to close out the series. The Celtics have to play like this is their Game 7 and play like they are the ones with their backs against the wall. They need to fight human nature and be the team that plays harder.
Short Handed Cavs – The Cavs are expected to be without Jarrett Allen once again and according to reports, Donovan Mitchell is not expected to play in this game as well. Caris LeVert is listed as questionable with knee soreness but will likely play. The Celtics historically have played down to teams that are missing key players. Among other examples, they lost to a bad Lakers team missing LeBron and Davis. They allowed a weakened Cavs team to challenge them in Game 4. Will the Celtics take this game seriously enough to give it their best in spite of the Cavs being short handed?
Officiating – Officiating is always an x-factor. Every crew calls the game a little differently with some calling it tight and others letting them play. They seem to be letting them play more in these playoffs so far, but that could change with any given crew and any given game. The Cavaliers did a lot of complaining about the officiating after Game 4 and so we may see the refs trying to give them more calls, whether they earn them or not because of those complaints. The Celtics have to adjust to how the game is being called and focus on the game and not on the officials.
Official Report
Crew Chief – Tony Brothers – If there is one referee that strikes fear into every fan base when they see his name, it is Tony Brothers. He was recently voted the 2nd worst referee in the league by a poll of NBA players. Only Scott Foster was voted worse. Brothers has a home win/loss record of 39-31. The Celtics are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Brothers. This is his first game with the Celtics in the playoffs. The Cavs are 7-3 in their last 10 with Brothers, including the 104-103 Cavs win over the Magic in Game 5. He calls 49% of fouls against the road team and 51% against the home team. He can be good and he can be very bad.
Referee – David Guthrie – Guthrie has a home win/loss record of 23-36. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Guthrie as a ref, including the Game 2 loss to Miami in the first round. The Cavs are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Guthrie. This is Cleveland’s first game with Guthrie in the playoffs. He calls 53% of fouls against the road team and 47% against the home team. In last year’s Finals, Guthrie was seen encouraging Michael Malone to challenge a call against the Nuggets which has caused some controversy.
Umpire – Ben Taylor – Taylor has a home win/loss record of 30-20. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Taylor, including their Game 5 win over the Heat. The Cavs are 8-2 in their last 10 games with Taylor, including their Game 2 win over the Magic. He calls 47% of fouls against the road team and 53% against the home team. Last season, after several complaints from players about Taylor’s officiating, he was removed from crew chief position and was used only as crew for the rest of the season.