The Celtics came into Game 2 with an 81.9% chance of winning, according to ESPN analytics. Instead, they lost by 10 to an undermanned Heat team missing two of its four leading scorers.
Kristaps Porzingis, who’s had a historically efficient year from the post, struggled immensely, finishing with just 6 points on 1 of 9 shooting.
Jrue Holiday shot just 4 of 12.
The Celtics were held to 18 third quarter points en route to a loss that the broader basketball community did not see coming.
The response is going to be – and has already been – sensationalized. The Miami Herald’s headline recapping the game reads “Heat shock Celtics” and CBS Sports’ “Miami stuns Boston.”
The Celtics were ‘humiliated,’ according to hundreds at home on Twitter. The unexpected outcome signals that they are ‘frauds.’
The outcry is the result of wildly unrealistic expectations heading into the matchup. Ahead of Game 2, the Heat were 14.5 point underdogs, a stunning line for any postseason game, particularly considering the fact Miami eliminated Boston last season. ESPN analyst Kendrick Perkins, while known for his fiery takes, said after Game 1 that there was zero chance for the Heat to steal even a single game in the series.
“The Miami Heat could go 100 percent from the field and 100 percent from the 3, and they’re still gonna get swept in this series,” Perkins said on NBA Countdown.
It’s obviously not a comment that can be taken at face value, but it reflects a broader misunderstanding of the limits of Miami Heat basketball — and of the challenge of winning NBA playoff games.
After suffering a Game 1 blowout, Erik Spoelstra — as he’s done countless times before —made strategic tactical adjustments. Seeing that Jayson Tatum lit them up for 10 assists on the Sunday, Miami moved away from doubling, instead crowding passing lanes, denying Kristaps Porzingis comfortable positioning in the post, and pushing catches higher across the board.
Joe Mazzulla, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday said at practice this week that they knew a different Heat team would show up on Wednesday, and that was certainly the case.
The dominant narrative entering this series is that Miami would have to outshoot the Celtics in order to have a chance. They did just that, hitting a franchise playoff record 23 three-pointers. The Heat shot 53.5% from beyond the arc, making their fourth playoff game in the past two seasons with 50% shooting from three against Boston – no other team has more than one against anyone.
Media, fans, and analysts can express outrage and shock at the outcome, but the players themselves won’t.
“We knew it wasn’t going to be easy,” Jayson Tatum said after the loss. “There’s a lot of history between these two franchises, especially recently. Regardless of seeding, or who’s in or who’s out, it’s the playoffs. Especially with that team, it’s never going to go how people expect it to go.”
Jayson Tatum’s assessment of the loss:
“We knew it wasn’t going to be easy. There’s a lot of history between these two franchises, especially recently. Regardless of seeding, who’s in or who’s out, it’s the playoffs.”
“It’s never going to go how people expect it to go.” pic.twitter.com/450qGWNQni
— Noa Dalzell (@NoaDalzellNBA) April 25, 2024
These two teams have now faced off in four of the last five postseasons. In 2020, Miami took the series in six games in the Orlando bubble. In 2022, the Celtics got their revenge in seven. Last spring, the Heat won in seven.
Many predicted a Celtics sweep, but that’s just not how competition between these two teams has fared over the years. No Jimmy Butler is certainly a roadblock, but Miami’s success has always predicated on the other guys stepping up.
In 2020, it was Goran Dragic who averaged 20.5 points against the Celtics. Last year, it was Caleb Martin putting up 19.3 in the Eastern Conference Finals and capping things off with a 26-point Game 7 performance.
Martin had another big performance last night in front of a hostile TD Garden crowd, finishing with 21 points on 7-12 shooting, while relatively unproven guys like Nicola Jovic (3-4 from three), Jaime Jaquez (3-6 from three) and Haywood Highsmith (3-5 from three) all contributed their fair share. Tyler Herro was the driver of it all, finishing with 14 assists in a playmaking masterpiece.
“Guys are in the NBA for a reason,” Tatum said. “Everybody is capable. There’s a lot of capable shooters out there. Anybody can get hot.”
The results means that the#1/#8 match-up now becomes a best-of-five series between Miami and Boston. The winner advances to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and the loser goes home. Miami benefits from home court advantage for the series, along with the outside perception of playing with house money.
But Joe Mazzulla does not view the outcome of Game 1 as shocking. All year, he’s stressed that the Celtics aren’t taking anyone lightly, and that no result is guaranteed. That nothing is given.
It’s easy for analysts at home to say anything short of Celtics in 4 is a disgrace due to the talent disparities between the rosters.
Joe Mazzulla on whether it’s good for the Celtics to face adversity:
“It’s unfortunate that losing a game is adversity. The nature of the playoffs is adverse itself. To think your not going to have ups and downs through that run, you’re not being realistic.” pic.twitter.com/jIhTqmEVgX
— Noa Dalzell (@NoaDalzellNBA) April 25, 2024
But to the people on the inside, that’s just not the case. The 2008 Celtics famously went to 7 games in the first round against the 8th seeded Atlanta Hawks. Mazzulla and his staff have studied that playoff run and countless others in order to embrace the understanding that the path to winning it all has looked different for every NBA champion.
“It’s unfortunate that losing a game is [considered] adversity,” Mazzulla said. “It’s just the nature of the playoffs. It’s adverse itself. To think that you’re not going to have ups and downs throughout a run, you’re not being realistic.”
