Don’t trust the Titans tonight, plus six other best bets to get you through the holiday weekend

Hello, and Happy Thursday, everyone. I’m here for one last newsletter before sending you all on your way to a holiday weekend, assuming the holidays haven’t entered the health and safety protocols by the time you read this. If they have, don’t worry, December will call up National Pizza Day from the holiday G League to make sure it gives you something to celebrate if you need it.

There will not be a Friday edition of the newsletter this week, but we’ve decided to move Football Friday up a day to today, but I do not have an alliterative name for it. I’ve tried, but I keep coming back to Thirsty Thursday, which makes no sense in this context but is something my friends and I celebrated in college. Thirsty Thursday just sounded less problematic than “binge-drinking,” so we went with it.

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Anyway, before I get any deeper into the egg nog, check out the latest stories from around the world of sports, and then we’ll dive into a weekend’s worth of picks to keep you busy.

Now let me put my Santa Claus costume on and deliver all you boys and girls some gifts.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

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🏈 49ers at Titans, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NFL Network

Latest Odds:

San Francisco 49ers
-3.5

The Pick: 49ers -3 (-110): I’m not a believer in the Titans. At least, not the version of the Titans that has Derrick Henry on the sidelines. At full strength, it’s a good football team, but the Titans have not been a full-strength in a long time. Even with A.J. Brown being activated and returning for tonight’s game, it’s hard to rely on a player who has been out for a month and didn’t look all that great before missing time.

Tennessee began the year 8-2 despite the injuries, but while it was able to soldier on for a bit, reality has caught up over the last month. They’ve lost three of four — including a loss to Houston — and looked overmatched against the Patriots and Steelers. Now they’re facing a 49ers team that has had nearly the opposite season. San Francisco started 3-5 and has won five of six since.

I think it’ll be six of seven after tonight for San Fran, and their track record in spots like this doesn’t hurt my confidence. Since Kyle Shanahan took over the team, San Francisco has gone 23-16 ATS on the road compared to 15-22-1 at home. That includes a mark of 8-6 ATS as road favorites, including a record of 4-2 ATS as road favorites this season.

Key Trend: The 49ers are 23-16 ATS on the road under Kyle Shanahan.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is 21-10-1 ATS in his last 32 picks involving the Titans and he has a play available for tonight too.

💰The Picks

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🏈 College Football

Gasparilla Bowl: Florida vs. UCF, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Latest Odds:

UCF Knights
+7

The Pick: UCF +7 (-115) — You always have to question whether or not a team wants to be there when it comes to bowl games. Yes, SEC fanbases are a bit too quick to use it as an excuse for any postseason loss, but there is some truth in it in a situation like this one. The Gators have a new coach coming into the program, Billy Napier, and a lot of players who aren’t sure what the future holds for them. This bowl game, which is a quick two-hour drive down the road against an in-state program, might not seem like much of a reward. There’s a strong chance the Gators just want to get the season over with and move on with their lives.

Then there’s UCF. The Knights are without quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who suffered an injury earlier this season and has since transferred to UCLA, but this offense performed well without him. The Knights rank 44th nationally in points per possession and 41st in offensive success rate. While Florida is more talented, UCF has a clear motivational edge. If Florida beats UCF, it just did what it’s supposed to. But if UCF beats Florida? That’s promotional material the program can use as it prepares to join the Big 12. Plus, if Gus Malzahn’s history at Auburn taught us anything, it’s that his teams are always prepared and motivated in rivalry games like this one.

Key Trend: Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite.

Hawaii Bowl: Memphis at Hawaii, Friday, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Latest Odds:

Over 55.5

The Pick: Over 55 (-110) — While bowl games are always more difficult to handicap than regular-season games, one thing typically holds true: bad defenses in the regular season are still bad defenses in bowl games. These are two bad defenses. Hawaii ranks a respectable 67th in defensive success rate, but the 2.17 points it allowed per possession ranks 83rd. Meanwhile, Memphis ranks 78th in defensive success rate and 93rd in points allowed per possession.

So, let’s bet on both defenses continuing to be bad! Now, if I have any concern with this play, it’s that I don’t know if we can rely on Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors are playing in their stadium, but there have been rumblings of some locker room troubles between the players and coach Todd Graham. Maybe they’re just whispers of disgruntled players, or maybe there’s more to it. If it’s the latter, it could have a significant impact on this play. At the same time, Memphis might get us home on its own if Hawaii no-shows.

Key Trend: The over is 7-3-1 in Memphis’ last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

Camellia Bowl: Georgia State vs. Ball State, Saturday, 2:30 p.m | TV: ESPN

Latest Odds:

Georgia State Panthers
-6

The Pick: Georgia State -6 (-110) — Simply put, I do not trust the MAC right now, nor do I trust Ball State’s rush defense in this matchup. Maybe it isn’t fair to paint an entire conference with a broad brush, but as I write this on Thursday, the MAC is 0-4 in bowl games, losing by an average of 15.75 points per game. All four losses have come against other Group of Five programs.

Ball State’s rush defense ranks 77th nationally in success rate against the run and 89th in defensive EPA against the run. Georgia State runs the ball 62.3% of the time on offense (8th). The Panthers rank 38th nationally in yards per carry at 4.89, 34th in success rate rushing the ball and 20th in rushing EPA. In a game that will come down to which defense gets more stops, I trust Georgia State a lot more than I do Ball State.

Key Trend: Georgia State is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite.

🏈 NFL

Colts at Cardinals, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | TV: NFL Network

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
+1

The Pick: Colts +1 (-110) — It feels like we’ve been here before, doesn’t it? Last year the Cardinals started the season 6-3 but finished by losing five of their last seven and missed the playoffs. This season the Cardinals started 7-0 but have lost four of their last seven. Kyler Murray is banged up, and while a lot of attention was paid to his height coming out of college, the real danger of Murray’s size is his ability to withstand an entire NFL season.

While Kyler was sharp in his return from injury against the Bears, he’s been bad the last two weeks, and it’s clear he’s not 100%. This week he’s going against a tough and physical Indianapolis defense that has caused problems for many opponents and a team that’s steamrolling opponents behind Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have been undervalued on the market all season long, but while the public is finally starting to catch on, this still strikes me as a situation where the wrong team is favored.

Key Trend: The Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

Bills at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: CBS

Latest Odds:

New England Patriots
-2

The Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-110) — I know the Bills won last week to put a temporary end to their recent slide, but it was against Cam Newton and the Panthers. We already know the Bills can beat Cam Newton because their only two wins against New England in the last nine meetings came with Cam at QB for the Patriots. This is a series the Patriots have long dominated (they’ve won 36 of the 43 meetings since 2000), and I expect that run to continue.

The Bills have legitimate problems in the trenches that a win over the Panthers will not fix. We’ve seen it all year. When Buffalo goes up against a team that’s strong on its lines, it loses. It lost to Tennessee, it lost to Indianapolis, it lost to Tampa Bay and it lost to these Patriots 14-10 just a few weeks ago. New England ran the ball on it all night long. Maybe they use that embarrassment as motivation and turn things around this weekend. Or maybe the Patriots will just beat them again. I know which outcome I think is more likely.

Key Trend: The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.

Chargers at Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: CBS

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers
-10.5

The Pick: Chargers -10 (-110) — I took the Texans last week against the Jaguars, and while I appreciate them getting the win outright, I wasn’t betting on them because I believed in them. I was betting them because the Jaguars are just that much worse. The Chargers, on the other hand, are not. So I now find myself betting on a double-digit road favorite in an NFL game. I assure you, this is not a position I enjoy being in, so the fact I’m here should tell you how confident I am in the pick.

The Texans are terrible, and the Chargers offense is playing extremely well. Los Angeles already ranks third in the league in points per drive at 2.57, but over the last five games, that number is at 2.83. Now, on the flip side, the Chargers defense has been bad most of the season, but Houston’s offense is terrible too. While I don’t think the Chargers can truly blow the doors off anybody with their defense, I do think they can score enough to cover this spread against a Texans team with nothing to play for.

Key Trend: The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Advanced Projection Model, which is up over $7,000, has five strong player prop bets for the Week 16 Thursday Night Football Game between the Titans and 49ers.