Saturday afternoon, the BC men’s basketball team faces its biggest test yet when they visit No. 7 Virginia for a noontime tip.
Winners of two straight, the Eagles will be looking to get to .500 as they currently sit at 10-11. Right now, Vegas has BC as a 16.5-point underdog. Virginia is second in the ACC at 15-3 overall and 7-2 in the league, only behind 17-4, 9-1 Clemson. All signs point to a Hoos blowout, but if you take a look at where both teams are in each statistical category in the ACC, there’s a chance the Eagles can keep things close.
Let’s look at how both teams stack up in the ultra competitive ACC.
TEAM OFFENSE
Virginia ranks 11th in the league, scoring 1,266 points so far this year, good for a 69.3 average.
Boston College is 14th of 15th teams in total offense, having scored 1,393 points, an average of 66.3 points per game. Needless to say, this one might be a low scoring affair, which might be why the Over/Under is at just 125.
TEAM DEFENSE
Virginia is the top ranked defensive team in the ACC, giving up total of 1,095 points (60.3 PPG). The Eagles are right there, ranked seventh in the league with 1,459 points given up (69.5 PPG). As stated above, this one could be much closer than people (Vegas thinks) because of the defenses.
MARGIN OF VICTORY
Virginia is on top of the ACC in this category as well, winning by an average of 10.1 points per game. BC is 13th, with a -3.1 margin of victory over 21 games. Now, this game COULD be close, but if Virginia gets out early, well then, look out.
TEAM FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
Virginia is sixth, shooting 46% from the field. BC is 12th, shooting at a 43% clip. The Eagles’ shooting has been a bit of a roller coaster ride throughout the season, but BC will need to knock down shots early and often to stay in this one.
OPPONENT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
Virginia’s opponents are shooting just 40% against them, good enough for second in the ACC. BC hasn’t been so lucky, as the Eagles rank 13th with opponents shooting 45% against them. It doesn’t seem like a big gap, but it most certainly is.
THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE
This is where the Eagles will desperately need a similar performance to the one they had against Notre Dame recently. Virginia is the top-shooting three point team in the ACC, hitting 145/375 for a 39% rate. Boston College is dead last, hitting just 105 of 354 attempts, which is just 30%. If this thing turns into an NBA shooting fest, BC might be in trouble, although…
OPPONENT THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE
Virginia may hit a lot of threes, but they also give them up at a pretty decent rate as well. Virginia is 12th, giving up 35% from beyond the arc per game. BC is also last here too, with opponents at 38% per game.
THREE-POINTERS MADE PER GAME
Virginia is sixth, hitting 7.8 threes per game, while BC is again dead last, draining just five per game. Something will have to change if BC is going to avoid getting blown out.
FREE THROWS
It’s no secret how critical this area can be in college hoops, and both Virginia and BC struggle quite a bit, which could actually benefit the Eagles. UVA is 13th in the ACC, hitting 71% of their freebies, while BC is 14th, hitting just over 70%. A buddy of mine has always said the five most important words in basketball are “make your friggin free throws” and that applies here. The team that gets to the line and converts the most may come away with the win.
REBOUNDING
If free throws and three point shooting are the two biggest factors on Saturday, then rebounding is third. Boston College absolutely has to control the glass on both ends, otherwise giving a team like Virginia extra opportunities is just asking tor a blowout. The Eagles are actually ahead of Virginia in the ACC team rebounding rankings. BC is 11th (33.2 RPG) while UVA is 12th (32.6 RPG). Crash the glass!
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Particularly on the offensive glass, BC could have a big advantage, especially with Quinten Post finally in full game shape. BC is eighth with 9.6 offensive rebounds per game, Virginia is all the way down in 13th, only grabbing 8.1 per game. Second change opportunities will be MASSIVE for BC.
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING
Same goes for the other side of the floor. BC absolutely has to limit second chances on the road. UVA is 10th with 24.5 defensive boards per game. BC is 13th with 23.6.
TURNOVER MARGIN
Perhaps surprisingly to most BC fans, the Eagles are in the top four in the ACC when it comes to turnover margin. BC is fourth at 1.48, but the problem here is that Virginia is second with a 3.22 margin. In other words, hold onto the ball, this Virginia team is very, very active.
I’m not saying BC will win or even cover the 16.5 point spread when these teams tip off at noon, but a lot of these numbers suggest that this young Eagles team MIGHT have a chance to make this one a game on Saturday, and that’s all you can ask for.
