We focus on an in-state rivalry tonight in the Big 12 between two teams seemingly headed in the opposite direction.
It’s a light slate tonight in college hoops, but there is a very important Big 12 game ready to go down in Manhattan, Kansas.
An intense in-state rivalry takes center stage in the Big 12 on Monday night as the #8 Kansas Jayhawks (18-4, 6-3 Big 12) face off against the Kansas State Wildcats (14-8, 4-5 Big 12). Kansas is coming off an impressive victory against #4 Houston, securing a 78-65 win as 1.5-point underdogs at home. Meanwhile, Kansas State suffered a road loss to Oklahoma State, falling 75-72 and losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This matchup marks the first of two meetings between these teams this season. Last year, these two split their Big 12 matchups, with each team securing a victory on their home court. The game is set to tip off at 9:00 EST at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas, and will be broadcast on ESPN.
This matchup lines up to be the type of spot play we absolutely love, and we’ll tell you why.
#8 Kansas (18-4) @ Kansas State (14-8) | ESPN | 7:00 pm |
Looking at the Jayhawks
you’re gonna need some popcorn for this one 🍿
↩️ vs. Houston pic.twitter.com/Zm3zLBG5CP
— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) February 5, 2024
Kevin McCullar Jr. leads the Jayhawks in scoring. The All-American is a dynamic 6’7 senior guard averaging 19.7 points per game. McCullar tops the Big 12 in scoring and has been lights out from deep with 33 made three-pointers this season, for a 35.9% clip from three. Known for his consistency, McCullar has scored 12 or more points in every game this season. In the frontcourt, Hunter Dickinson, the team’s prominent big man, is a “tall task” for any defense, adding 18.8 PPG, ranking second in the conference, and leading in rebounding with 11.1 per game. The Jayhawk “Big Three” is rounded out by forward KJ Adams Jr., a 6’7, 235-pound junior, averaging 12.6 PPG and 4.7 RPG. But the knock on the Jayhawks all year has been their lack of depth. After these three, there’s a significant drop in scoring, with 6’9 freshman guard Johnny Furphy being the next highest contributor with 8.5 PPG. The Jayhawks continue to search for that fourth option and any bench scoring they can find.
The other big issue with this Jayhawk squad is that they have really struggled away from Allen Fieldhouse, especially in the Big 12. We’ll jump into the numbers in a bit and break down just how much Kansas has struggled on the road so far this season.
Kansas State Continues to Slide
Find the momentum @TimarPerry #KStateMBB 44, Oklahoma State 50 | 11:34 2H pic.twitter.com/Ml8da2XvdE
— K-State Men’s Basketball (@KStateMBB) February 3, 2024
Kansas State recently faced a challenging stretch against three consecutive ranked opponents in #23 Iowa State, #4 Houston, and #23 Oklahoma, resulting in three consecutive losses. In their latest matchup against Oklahoma State, they continued that losing streak as they dropped their fourth straight. With a 4-5 record, the Wildcats find themselves in the middle of the Big 12 standings, sharing the position with four other teams in the league.
The team relies on three key scorers, featuring two perimeter players and one in the frontcourt. Cam Carter, a 6’3 junior guard, stands as their leading scorer, averaging 15.8 points per game, along with 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists. Carter contributed 17 points and 5 assists in the recent game against Oklahoma State. Tylor Perry, a 5’11 senior guard, serves as the primary playmaker, leading the team in assists with 4.8 per game and scoring 14.6 points per game. Perry has molded himself into a big-time shooter and has made 59 threes at a 32.1% shooting rate from beyond the arc. In the last two games, he posted impressive performances, scoring 19 points against Oklahoma State and 23 against Oklahoma. Arthur Kaluma, a 6’7, 225-pound junior forward, anchors the interior, adding 14.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Kaluma will be the Wildcats’ answer to Hunter Dickinson down low, and he’ll make it tough on the Jayhawk big man.
But this is a spot play for us. We like the buy-low spot on Kansas State during this string of matchups against ranked opponents. The other spot we love is that Kansas is coming off a massive home win over Houston but has really struggled on the road this year. Let’s jump into the numbers that make us love this spot play.
By The Numbers:
- Kansas comes in just 5-4 ATA in conference games
- Kansas is 2-3 ATS on the road
- Kansas is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite
- Kansas is 8-11-1 ATS as a favorite
Kansas comes in 1-3 overall on the road, as they have lost at Iowa State by four, at West Virginia by six, and at UCF by five. They were favored in all three of these road matchups. Their lone road win over their last four in conference is a 90-66 drubbing of a down Oklahoma State squad.
We’re going to look for this trend to continue in this big rivalry match-up. We love Kansas State coming in on a tough run against ranked teams. A rivalry game at home against a team they beat at home last year could really wake them up and help them snap out of this slide. Couple that with the fact that this Kansas team is just not nearly the team they are at home and on the road this season. We like the Wildcats to cover this number at home and maybe even pull off the upset.
