10 takeaways from a buzzer-beater night in the Garden

#1 – The statistical similarities

If you are familiar with my approach, you might have noticed I love to talk about tactics as much as I like to use statistics. In basketball, there are a couple of team statistics categories that I really like to use to better understand the game I watched or to confirm an impression I have.

The first category is the four factors. These four factors were identified by Dean Oliver and defined as the numbers to watch to understand basketball success. These numbers are:

• Shooting (40%)
• Turnovers (25%)
• Rebounding (20%)
• Free Throws (15%)

(The number in parentheses is the approximate weight Mr. Oliver assigned each factor.)

Last night, the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors were almost the same, which is rare and explains why the game was so close and went to overtime.

Both teams shot at above-average efficiency (55.6% eFG%), were very good at not turning the ball over (below 10% turnover rate), were aggressive on the boards (above 32% offensive rebound rate), and didn’t go to the free-throw line a lot (below 18 free-throw rate). So, were the Raptors and the Celtics two twins playing the same game plan?

#2 – The statistical differences

Well, obviously not. This is why the four factors are more of a statistical category to measure success but not the process itself. To better understand the game plan and the process, the shooting frequency is very helpful. As a human, I can notice tendencies, but I can’t count the number of shots in every area for both teams; that’s why I use stats here too.

Last night, while the teams looked similar if we focused on the four factors, the shot frequency was as different as it gets. The Celtics took only 14% of their attempts at the rim compared to 35% for the Raptors. Beyond the line, we also see a huge gap, with the Raptors only taking nine above-the-break threes, while the Celtics took 37 attempts from there.

I wanted to highlight how sometimes statistics can tell both sides of a story and mention how important it is to always mix them with other stats, context, and watching the game itself.

#3 – The Jays taking over in OT

With 51 points out of 126, the Celtics’ duo scored 40% of the Celtics’ points against the Raptors. However, in overtime, when the Celtics needed it, the Jays delivered. The coaching staff ran a few plays for them, like this Zoom Action (off-ball screen and a handoff) for Jaylen Brown. The second screen from Kornet opens the shot for Jaylen, who loves these clutch moments.

fter Jaylen delivered, Jayson took it upon himself to keep the Celtics above the Raptors. A strong drive with a left-hand finish… beautiful. There has been concern about his ability to finish at the rim—well, this year, he’s making 80% of his rim attempts.

The offensive animation wasn’t perfect late in the game, and the Raptors showed great energy despite playing on a back-to-back. The offensive creation was a bit shaky, but again, the Jays are here to take and make the tough shots when it matters the most.

#4 – The final play wasn’t drawn like this

Last night, the iconic Jayson Tatum shot wasn’t meant to happen… but it did. How do we know it wasn’t supposed to happen? Well, first, because Jayson Tatum told it himself to Abby Chin after the game.

Also, you can see his face when Jaylen Brown falls down. He looks at the clock on the other side of the court to evaluate how much time he has left and process what he can do about it.

The original play was a Strong Motion action with staggered screens off-ball for Jaylen Brown, but Davion Mitchell didn’t let that happen.

#5 – Jayson Tatum’s passing keeps growing

Over the last five games, he has averaged eight assists alongside 29 points and nine rebounds on great efficiency. While his scoring doesn’t surprise me much, his passing seems to have taken another leap. Against the Nets a few days ago, I was left speechless by this skip pass to Horford in the clutch.

Last night, he showed again how much of a great passer he is. This season, he was also able to develop a new ability: the no-look pass. This might sound like a gadget, but there is more to it. With these new passing abilities, Jayson is able to manipulate defenses even more and be dangerous in a greater number of situations.

Plus, like every year, his ability to drive and dish (or drive and kick) has improved. He keeps getting better at mastering timing and reading the defense’s placement.

#6 – Jaylen Brown’s free-throw hunt

Jaylen Brown’s ability to draw fouls has been, for a few seasons, a big talking point among Celtics analysts. Why doesn’t he draw more fouls? What could he do to adjust and generate more trips to the line?

Well, last night, as he has been doing since the start of the season, Jaylen Brown hunted fouls and was able to get to the line. This season, his shooting foul rate is up to 16%, the 93rd percentile for a wing. This is a great improvement from his usual 11%. His offensive season has been on and off and might be addressed in another article, but this new weapon in his game is great news for the Celtics.

Another piece of good news from the FT line is his efficiency. The sample size is still small, but he’s well above his last season’s efficiency, with almost 79% of free throws made.

#7 – Queta as a lob threat

The Celtics’ spacing issue has been discussed a lot with Kristaps Porziņģis out for months. His three-point shot is often mentioned, but we tend to forget about his lob threat, which creates vertical spacing.

We sometimes forget how valuable vertical spacing is. If you wonder how crucial it can be, think about the Celtics’ offense in 2021-22 with Robert Williams’ vertical spacing in the starting lineup.

Last season, the Celtics made 104 alley-oops; 32 of them were for KP. This season, the Celtics can use Queta as a lob threat, and last night’s game was a great illustration of it. So far this season, Queta has made 12 of the 20 Celtics’ alley-oops, and three came last night. What I love about it is that they were assisted by three different Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White.

While the Jayson Tatum alley-oop to Queta came from a classic pick-and-roll, the other two from Zoom Action started from different areas on the court. Jaylen started from the wing:

And Derrick White’s started from the top:

This highlights how well Queta knows how to rim-run and adjust based on the defensive coverage, ball position, and timing of the action. A great addition to the rotation this year and very fun to watch.

#8 – Bench impact in the 3rd

Talking about the rotation, the bench kept the Celtics close to the Raptors in the 3rd quarter. Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, and Jordan Walsh scored 19 of the Celtics’ 30 points and made the run to make sure the Raptors weren’t going anywhere. Alongside Jayson Tatum’s playmaking and his four assists in 12 minutes, the bench players showed how great they are at finishing.

The second unit has a great fit with JT, who can make the offense shine without making any shots. He was able to generate the advantage, attract defensive attention, and make sure PP, Sam, and the rest of the crew had the open shots they needed to keep the Celtics in the game.

#9 – Toronto’s off-ball movement made the Celtics’ defense look bad

You might be wondering, if all these takeaways were positive, how come the Celtics almost lost to one of the worst teams in the NBA? First, because even the worst team in the NBA is dangerous. The Raptors are well-coached, smart, and tough, and they knew how to attack the Celtics.

Since the start of the season, the Celtics have been playing poorly defensively compared to their standards. The transition defense has been messy, and the rim protection is nowhere to be found with KP out. However, how did a team without a great offensive initiator punish the Celtics at the rim so often? Well, speed and off-ball movement.

In the example above, the Raptors run a Zoom Action, which gets 100% of the Celtics’ defense’s attention. While this happens, RJ Barrett cuts behind Jayson Tatum, and they have an open shot at the rim.

Another example here was a great play-call from Darko Rajaković that made the Celtics pay for their bad off-ball defensive rotation. They run a Ghost Flare action where Gradey Dick sets a fake on-ball screen and uses Pöltl’s flare screen to lose Sam Hauser. Jaylen Brown stays on Pöltl, Queta is way too far to help, and it leads to another open shot at the rim.

If the Celtics had some trouble winning last night, it was because of their off-ball defense. Nonetheless, the on-ball defense and pick-and-roll defensive coverage weren’t perfect either.

#10 – Pick-and-roll defensive coverage

Last night, the Celtics couldn’t contain RJ Barrett’s pick-and-roll game, but had they even tried? I remain under the impression that they didn’t and were happy with the shots the Raptors took; they just didn’t expect them to make these at such a high rate.

The Celtics’ pick-and-roll defensive coverage was a soft drop, or a soft contain, as you prefer. The on-ball defender was going under the screen because RJ Barrett can’t pull up, allowing them to contain the drive. However, the screener’s defender also helped to contain the drive.

This drew a lot of defensive attention to the ball and RJ Barrett, which opened the floor for Pöltl. The Austrian was unstoppable from the short mid-range last night, but the Celtics decided to live with it. They switched it to a little bit more agressive coverage later in the game, but the short-mid range was still open.

You could argue it was risky, but the short mid-range is not an efficient area on the floor, and they trusted their process that Pöltl wouldn’t make enough of them to lose. It almost worked out for the Raptors, but the basketball gods were on the Celtics’ side last night.